Author: Michael

The price tag for rebuilding Ukraine keeps climbing, and the latest official estimate puts it close to $588 billion. That figure, daunting as it is, may be the easier half of the problem. Money can be borrowed, seized, or donated. People are far harder to replace, and after more than four years of war, Ukraine has lost millions of them, including a large share of the young, educated, and skilled workers any reconstruction will depend on.

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For the first time, all 22 National Guard generals who command America’s Air National Guard fighter squadrons put their names on a single letter to Congress, and their message was blunt. The United States Air Force, they wrote, is the oldest, the smallest, and the least ready it has been in its 78-year history. The independent data largely backs them up. The fighter force has shrunk by more than half since the Cold War ended, the jets that remain are decades old, and readiness has fallen to its lowest level in a generation.

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Ukraine has turned its drone war into an explicit instrument of coercion. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced this week that he approved a 40-day operation by Ukraine’s security service aimed squarely at one goal, forcing Russia to negotiate an end to the war.

The operation comes with a deadline and a clear purpose: to make the war hurt deep inside Russia until Moscow agrees to negotiate, and its early results are already severe.

Ukraine Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

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Ukraine has spent the early summer methodically choking off Crimea, hitting the fuel depots, the rail bridges, the ferry terminals, and the supply routes that keep the peninsula running, and the effect is now impossible for Moscow to hide. Russian occupation authorities have rationed gasoline, brought in fuel vouchers, and watched the summer tourist season collapse. Vladimir Putin’s options for hitting back are real, but they are also narrower than the Kremlin’s rhetoric suggests, and most of them are versions of things Russia is already doing without decisive effect.

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