Author: Michael

…imagine not being able to change your own tire…

Once a bad theory is adopted because it makes sense to one cohort (GOFOs who went to a two-week MBA camp) and is encouraged by others (influential civilian companies looking for another income stream), at the expense of what the first cohort should have been focused on but is an unpopular topic (winning wars), it spreads and develops its inertia.
Even when one area discovers the theory does not survive contact with reality, other areas carry on because, well, going along is easier than admitting error and changing.

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThree weeks after it was signed, the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran seems to be quickly unravelling. The two sides skirmished after an April ceasefire and continued to do so after the memorandum of understanding was reached, but had managed to keep those tit-for-tat exchanges from escalating into a full-on return to hostilities.

Accenture Federal Services was selected for a five-year task order worth up to $821 million to supply core integration support for the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and AI Office-managed War Data Platform, which grew out of the Advana enterprise data and analytics program. 
According to government open source and online market intelligence trackers, and three sources familiar with the recent award, Accenture beat out four other commercial bidders to secure the deal. The Defense Department is listed as the funding agency and the CDAO is named as the funding office.

NATO Wants Ukraine’s Drones – and Ukraine: When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine had little in the way of a dedicated military drone industry – and nor was it preparing to build one. Soldiers and volunteers responded to the invasion by using any tool they could find and quickly engaged in asymmetric warfare using Chinese-made DJI Mavic and DJI Phantom drones. The drones were jerry-rigged and modified with improvised grenade-release mechanisms that were capable of destroying Russian tanks through their open hatches.

“God help us if we go down here,” William Drager, a 25-year-old tail gunner from Hackettstown, N.J., wrote to his family in the late summer of 1944. “They’ll never find us because this is the most rugged country I’ve ever seen.”
He was right. For 52 years, anyway.
The 10-man aboard his B-24 Liberator bomber would get lost following an attack on Japanese positions. They didn’t just lose their way; they were lost to the world until 1996, when they were found by two Chinese farmers.

Russia May Escalate Fighting Instead of Negotiating for Peace: While President Donald Trump is optimistic that there is an end in sight to the Russo-Ukrainian war, Vladimir Putin has other ideas. Despite incessant drone and missile strikes from Ukraine that have flattened energy infrastructure, the Russian dictator has no plans to stop fighting anytime soon. Putin believes that his forces can still take all of Donbas, giving Russia the belief that it can achieve its strategic objectives in the war.

No End to the Meatgrinder

Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Industry Handout.

Is Iran Dragging The US Into A Long Conflict Against Its Will? President Donald Trump’s attempts to settle the Iran conflict continue to be hit with roadblocks due to Iran’s attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the latest exchange of retaliatory attacks between the two sides, leaving the US with limited options.

Trump declared that the interim agreement to end the conflict, the “Memorandum of Understanding,” was “over” and ordered fresh air strikes early Wednesday, hitting 90 targets according to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), after Iran targeted U.S.

Behind the political theatre $50bn worth of pro

The Defense Department has awarded other transaction agreements to nLIGHT Defense and Lockheed Martin Aculight for directed energy weapons as the military seeks new tools for zapping adversary drone swarms and cruise missiles, the Pentagon announced Thursday.
The deals, valued at $86 million, will support the Joint Laser Weapon System program, spearheaded by the Pentagon’s Research and Engineering directorate.
Defense officials have long-touted the benefits of DE systems such as their high-speed engagement, low cost-per-shot and deep magazines.

The war in Ukraine is escalating as both sides increase their medium- to long-range strike campaigns against each other. While many experts and analysts hoped that Ukraine’s recent drone campaign would force Russia to the negotiating table, it appears that the opposite has happened. Sources close to Putin have instead reported that the Kremlin is digging its heels in and remains adamant about ending the war on Russia’s terms.