The renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast of a significant oil market surplus next year, it said on Friday.
The IEA recently forecast that global oil markets will shift from a major deficit in 2026 to a massive supply surplus in 2027, driven by a recovery in production in the Middle East.
President Donald J. Trump signs executive orders, Friday, May 9, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
Global supply is projected to surge by 8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 110.3 million bpd.