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On the morning of May 10th, Russian forces launched a ground assault against Ukraine in the northern Kharkiv region opening up a new front. It’s the Ukraine invasion reboot sequel you never asked for. Today, I want to examine if this might be a diversion tactic by Russia or if they’re planning to assault the Kharkiv city center? How could Ukrainian defenders choose to respond? And What are the strategic motivations here for both sides?
Written by: Chris Cappy and Diego Aceituno
Video edited by: Chris Cappy
Behind me is a live conflict map that constantly updates the location of front line positions across the country. This red icon here indicates Russian troops are assaulting across roughly two dozen different towns on the border in the direction of Kharkiv. So far Russia claims to have captured 5 villages within an area known as the contested grey zone although Ukraine disputes that and says they are launching counter attacks in response. Elements of 93rd assault brigade are en route as a quick reaction force with their CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles.
This opening up of a new line of attack might seem like a surprise, but if you follow the open source intelligence reports too closely then you’ve noticed that for at least the past 2 weeks we’ve seen signs that Russia was creating an operational significant northern grouping. Ukraine reported Russia had moved between 35,000 and 50,000 of their troops to this region. On May 5th a week before the attack this report stated several Russian units including elements from the 104th VDV Regiment were taken off the front lines in south Zaporizhia and moved all the way up to the north to form a new grouping near Kharkiv. In addition to that, in early May the Ukrainian general staff had warned that Russia was massing troops along the northern border and could push for Kharkiv as an opener to a summer offensive starting in mid May. Originally they even anticipated the attack might include a 2nd attempt at invading the city of Sumy as well. Much like during the first invasion attempt in 2022 when we saw the Z symbol on many Russian vehicles we’re now seeing a new more complicated looking symbol associated specifically with the operational north grouping attacking near Kharkiv. Don’t ask me if it’s a celtic symbol, a letter of some unknown alphabet or a graphic design, I have no idea what that symbol means. If it means anything at all. maybe one of you guys recognize its significance and can enlighten me.
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