When is the risk of war the highest? And what should the United States be doing about it? One of the most important but underappreciated questions in international politics is how states think about the future balance of power. Countries that believe their position is improving often choose patience. Those who fear their position is deteriorating may feel pressure to act before their advantages disappear. In this episode, Ryan is joined by Dean Cheng, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Amanda Hsiao to explore how Chinese leaders may be thinking about time, power, and Taiwan.
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Summary and Key Points: Ask most people what an oil shortage looks like, and they’ll say expensive gas. They won’t say a bakery asking you to bring your own container, or a snack bag, suddenly printed in black and white. But that’s exactly what’s happening in Japan. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off the crude Japan turns into naphtha — the unglamorous petroleum derivative behind nearly all plastic, from packaging to medical supplies to the inks on a candy wrapper.
The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Expands
F-22 Raptor Reverse. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
In what is a clear slap in the face to Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainians have attacked his hometown of St. Petersburg. Drones from Ukraine pounced on the city overnight on June 3, which hit some buildings and injured a handful of citizens. This was more of a symbolic strike than one that could be decisive in the war, but Putin is likely seething in frustration.
Ukraine timed the attack to cause maximum confusion in a daring raid during one of Putin’s showcase events. He was planning to hold an economic forum in St. Petersburg, and Ukraine’s strike showed that nobody is safe in Russia.
ARX Robotics has outlined a series of expansion initiatives, including the establishment of a new headquarters and production facility in Munich, Germany.
Summary and Key Points: The Avro Vulcan was designed as a bomber, but it was never defined so tightly in practice. Britain’s great delta-winged V-bomber handled like a fighter, and at 45,000 feet it humbled them — Mirages, Phantoms, Starfighters, Lightnings all climbed up to take it on, and its pilots swear not one ever beat a Vulcan in a turning fight. It had a low radar signature and countermeasures that let it slip past defenses decades before anyone used the word “stealth.
Though the Army adopted the SIG M7 rifle and M8 carbine, the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) decided not to follow suit. Similarly, the Marine Corps also rejected the new weapon platform and its 6.8x51mm cartridge, electing instead to stick with its M27 IARs and NATO standard 5.56mm ammo.
In addition to adopting new Medium Range Gas Guns, chambered in 7.62mm NATO or 6.5mm Creedmoor for the assaulter and sniper roles, SOCOM’s latest procurement plan seems to indicate that the command has aversion to the SIG.
Summary and Key Points: Strip away the politics, and Trump’s war on Iran reads like two completely different stories. In one, it’s a stunning military success: Iran’s air force, navy, and missile brigades shattered, its nuclear program crippled, its supreme leader dead. In the other, it’s a looming disaster — illegal in critics’ eyes, opposed by most Americans, fought without allies, and unable to deliver the one thing that would justify it: a real peace. Dr. Brent Eastwood lays both ledgers side by side and reaches an uncomfortable conclusion.
Can Trump Extricate Himself from the Iran War?: When President George W. Bush ordered U.S. troops to invade Iraq almost a quarter century ago, he was giddy: His own father had defeated Iraq just 12 years previously in just 100 hours, forcing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein into a humiliating withdrawal from Iraq. For a generation of Middle Easterners, the so-called “highway of death” became synonymous with American power. The war led Donald Rumsfeld to embrace “fourth generation warfare,” placing technology above manpower.
Many Americans today consider the 2003 Iraq war a quagmire.
Summary and Key Points: Almost every conversation about the Iran War points the same way — toward Tehran, the Strait of Hormuz, the warships in the Gulf. Dr. Andrew Latham thinks the real story is unfolding where nobody’s looking: inside China’s oil storage tanks. For years, Beijing quietly stockpiled crude on a massive scale, for reasons that seemed unremarkable at the time. Now those reserves are why China — alone among the great powers — isn’t scrambling. But stockpiles only buy time; they don’t remove pressure.
The Iran War Comes for China
China’s Xi Jinping.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump has found himself in a mess, or perhaps it is better to say he has created one for himself. America and Iran continue to maintain a shaky ceasefire, characterized by a double blockade and punctuated by occasional airstrikes and missile exchanges. The United States is substantially short of the status quo ante, the position that it enjoyed before the war began. Worse, there is no clear way out of the conflict.
The Military Situation with Iran
U.S.