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Over the past couple weeks, everyone in Washington and the world has published their geopolitical forecast for 2025. The beauty of these predictions is that you can simultaneously make fun of the vague ones for being vague and the clear ones for being wrong. I really do admire the humility and wisdom of pundits who try to play it safe. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to pay for someone to tell me that Bashar al Assad’s fall will “probably increase instability” and that the Middle East will “remain the world’s hotspot” in 2025.

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As thick black smoke rises past their canopy, the crew of a California National Guard Chinook dives through a scrubby canyon, 500 feet over a line of flames. A cloud of water falls from a bucket slung beneath it, and a plume of white vapor signals to the crew that they’ve hit their mark. 
For California National Guard pilots like Chief Warrant Officer 5 Joseph Rosamond, these kinds of maneuvers have been honed over many years and operations.