Most accounts of the US–Iran war will credit its end to military factors: the cumulative effect of U.S. naval and air assaults on the one hand, or Iranian resilience in the face of these assaults on the other. That reading isn’t wrong so much as shallow. What was decided when the shooting stopped, and on whose terms, was oil — and the outcome was mostly set before the first clash of American and Iranian forces.
Both governments hit an oil crisis the day Iran sealed the Strait of Hormuz.